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  Will the prediction of A. Dugin come true?

Vadim Volovoj, Doctor in Political Sciences
2008 11 10

Aleksandr Dugin is a Russian geopolitician and a representative of the classical geopolicy school. According to this school, the fate of states is determined by their geographical determinism. It also says that contraposition of continental and marine powers, coinciding with the confrontation between the East and the West, is predetermined. The goal of each side is to restrict each other’s powers. To this end they try to attract geopolitical strategies and ideologies: in the West (first of all in the United States) this is Atlantism, and in the East (first of all in Russia) neo-Eurasianism and A.Dugin is one of pioneers of neo-Eurasianism.

The main thesis of the neo-Eurasianism is that the struggle between Russia and the United States is inevitable, since the United States is the engine of globalization seeking to destroy Russia, the fortress of spirituality and tradition.

According to A.Dugin, Russia alone cannot resist the dictatorship of the United States; therefore it needs a multi-polar world and the allies. In Europe these are Germany and France, which can, in cooperation with Russia, uproot the EU from the United States. In the world of Islam,Iran could become one of the main allies of Russia, since Iran retained its firm spiritual (religious) background. In the East, Russia should further develop its relationship with China, but at the same time must not lose alertness, since Beijing‘s geopolitical ambitions are yet unclear. According to A. Dugin, Japan could be the ideal geopolitical partner for Russia, however, Japan has become part of the Atlantic world and lost its spiritual strength. The ultimate goal of A. Dugin looks as follows: the United States should be repressed and free of any chance to claim for the global domination.

It is quite difficult to say if the current Russian authorities have been coherently observing and implementing the geopolitical strategy-ideology proposed by A.Dugin. So far the official Russian documents do not provide a clear definition of the country‘s vision. The idea of establishment of the security space „from Vancouver to Vladivostok“ could only be discerned in the last wording of the foreign policy.

There are some hints that A.Dugin is loyal to V.Surkov who is considered one of the key ideologists of the Kremlin. According to S.Lavrov, the minister of foreign affairs of Russia, „conciliation of Russia and Germany is one of the key factors for the establishment of the new Europe“, and A.Dugin lays substantial weight on the relationship with Germany.

A.Dugin himself denies his relations with the Kremlin and his statements on actions of the Russian authorities are quite controversial. For instance, at the beginning the geopolitician was quite skeptical towards D.Medvedev as the Russian president, but later he changed his mind and watched with pleasure D.Medvedev throwing down the glove to the uni-polar world (after having declared his five foreign policy goals and rebuffed the Georgian actions in the South Ossetia). Today A.Dugin is convinced that, if needed, Putin-Medvedev‘s tandem would not hesitate in bringing the army into Ukraine, and wouldn’t allow Ukraine join the NATO.

A.Dugin might have certain ideological influence on the Kremlin (when it is beneficial for the Kremlin) and sometimes gets financing for organization of various campaigns.  On the other hand, Russia‘s actions on the international stage show that Moscow is implementing the neo-Eurasian strategy. Let‘s consider the above issue.

According to A.Dugin, first of all Russia should return to the „Euro-Asian identity“ and start new struggle with the United States in the name of global liberation. This could be the reason of the especially tense current relationship between Russia and the United States.

Secondly, in order to gain over Europe, Russia should act via France and Germany. Today Russia in principle avoids communication with the EU, whereas its relations with the „Old Europe“ were especially close during the times of G. Schroeder and J. Chirac (they are good nowadays as well).

Thirdly, according to A.Dugin, Russia shall have a reliable ally in the Islam world and Iran could become one of the allies. Today Moscow plays around with Tehran and actually prevents the West from taking more strict sanctions against Tehran.

Fourthly, A.Dugin suggests acting in the East according to the situation. Today it is more useful for Russia to cooperate rather than confront with China, and the future would determine relevant actions.

Most importantly: for A. Dugin consolidation of influence in the post-soviet space is the ultimate goal of Russia if it wants to restore the empire. Russia has already „regularized“ Georgia and most probably is going to do the same with Ukraine.

I don‘t know if the Russian authorities follow A.Dugin‘s geopolitical doctrine, or are trying to restore the empire based on their own vision; but today the Russian foreign policy is in compliance with A.Dugin‘s geopolitical theory, and A.Dugin himself criticizes V.Putin and D.Medvedev for their insufficient firmness rather than for the principle issues.

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