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  Overview of Events in Ukraine during September 26 – October 09, 2016

Algirdas Karijotas
2016 11 22

Foreign Policy

On September 26, the European Parliament’s Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs Committee gave its consent to a visa-free regime with Ukraine by 38 votes to four against with one abstention. Before the final decision is announced, however, a so-called “clear position” will have to be forged between the European Commission, the Council of Europe and the European Parliament itself. In accordance with European Union procedures, the final decision will be made through voting in the European Parliament. In case the proposition is confirmed, the parliamentarians’ decision will have to be ratified by the foreign affairs ministers of the EU’s committee.

  NATO’s Vulnerable Link in Europe: Poland’s Suwalki Gap

BY Agnia Grigas, Atlantic Council
2016 11 14

The Pentagon's decision to quadruple its 2017 budget for European defence due to the perceived threat of Russian aggression and the recent RAND report noting the difficulties NATO would have defending the Baltic States, are once again bringing to the forefront the risks on Europe's frontier states. The top brass of US military forces, like U.S. Army Europe commander Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, have also already noted that a narrow piece of land connecting two NATO member states Poland and Lithuania – the Suwalki Gap ‒ could potentially be a target of Russian military aggression. Capture by hostile forces of Suwalki or bordering Lithuanian territory would cut off the three Baltic States from other NATO countries. Analysts have likened Suwalki to the Cold War era's Fulda Gap in Germany where NATO planned and prepared for hypothetical Soviet attacks. In addition to the region's problematic geography and militarized environment due to neighbouring Kaliningrad and Belarus, the Suwalki Gap is different and potentially an even more vulnerable target because the Kremlin could exploit the region's historic ethnic tensions.
  Top Trump Military Advisers Detail GOP Candidate‘s Defense Plan

By: Christopher P. Cavas and Joe Gould, DefenseNews
2016 11 10

The 2016 presidential election campaigns have not focused deeply on issues, certainly not on defense. While there is agreement that the restrictions of the Budget Control Act — the sequester — should be lifted, both sides have made rather general references to military policies, Clinton more on the policy side, Trump more on rebuilding what he claims is a “disaster” of a military. But details have been few and far between. 
  Why the International Criminal Court Can Contribute to Solve the “Ukraine Crisis”

By Valentyna Polunina and Andreas Umland
2016 11 10

The Case for Kyiv’s Ratification of the Rome Statute

Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the idea of enlisting the help of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague to punish those responsible for Moscow’s seizure of Crimea and the Donbas region has become popular in Ukrainian political discourse. This aspiration is but one expression of the willingness of many Ukrainians to let international organizations take a prominent role in their state’s domestic issues. That approach is in stark contrast to Moscow’s increasingly dualistic approach to foreign organizations and treaties, according to which international and domestic law spheres are treated as two separate areas... 

  What Can the West Do to Get Putin’s Attention?

By Christopher A. Hartwell and Andreas Umland
2016 11 09

The Case for Smarter Sanctions against an Increasingly Bellicose Russia

What should be done about an increasingly aggressive Russia? The past few weeks have brought more evidence of Moscow’s move away from international norms and law. From continued denials of complicity in the MH17 tragedy and the bombing of a humanitarian convoy in Syria, to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent exit from the Nuclear Security Pact with the US, Russia’s behaviour is diverging further from the rules-based consensus of the post-Cold War world. This is in spite of Western sanctions that were introduced against Moscow in 2014.

  Russia Falls Into Old Habits

By Lauren Goodrich
2016 11 07

Nearly 10 years ago, Stratfor published a series on Russia's historical boom-and-bust cycle. At that time, Russia was clearly at the height of a boom, rebuilding itself into a stable and robust power. Today, the country is quickly descending into the next, less pleasant stage. The strategy that revitalized the country is becoming less effective, forcing Russia and its leaders to act more aggressively at home and abroad. Though still assertive, Russia is no longer acting from a position of strength. The country may maintain some semblance of strength for years to come, but its fragility will eventually become apparent, forcing it into the next phase of the cycle.
  The Bear in Sheep’s Clothing: Russia’s Government-Funded Organisations in the EU

Martens centre
2016 11 06

This paper sheds light on organisations operating in Europe that are funded by the Russian government, whether officially or unofficially. These include government-organised non-governmental organisations (GONGOs), non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and think tanks.

Alexander Parkhomenko. The pro-Russian (not already) President of Moldova, who was seated by the Russian Federation, stated about the way towards the EU

2016 12 02

"I back up": networks got surprised with the unexpected statement of the pro-Russian President Dodon about the EU.

The newly elected president of Moldova Igor Dodon, known for his pro-Russian views, stated that his country is not going to refuse from the cooperation with the European Union.

The new President of Moldova promised to keep all relations with the European Union

2016 11 18

Dodon said that President cannot be pro-Russian or pro-European and promised to protect the interests of Moldova.

The US imposed sanctions against six State Duma Deputies from Crimea

2016 11 17

The US imposed sanctions against six Ukraine State Duma deputies from the Crimea, reported the US Treasury Department.

Five countries have extended sanctions against Russia

2016 10 27

Five European countries following the EU extended sanctions against Russia, noted the EU head of diplomacy Federica Mogherini in the statement published on the website of the European Council.

Russia and India signed an agreement for the supply of S-400

2016 10 18

Russia and India signed an agreement for the supply of S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems. The contract was signed after the meeting of President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the BRICS summit in Goa. Following the meeting, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi signed a series of agreements in the military-technical sphere at the BRICS summit in the state of Goa.

Russia - is the aggressor. The Parliament of Britain demanded that Russia should return the occupied Crimea to Ukraine

2016 10 14

Russia must withdraw all its forces from the territory, including Crimea, Gale said.

Lukashenko promises to support Russian army in the western direction

2016 10 10

President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko stated that Russia may rely upon the support of the Belarusian army in the western direction.


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